By Dennis T. Avery
The Heartland Institute, a Chicago libertarian think-tank, put up a billboard outside Chicago on May 3rd that showed a photo of a raddled-looking Ted Kaczynski, the Unabomber. The cut line said, "I believe in man-made global warming. Do you?"
Heartland had hoped to stir controversy over the "settled science" of the warming alarmists, and they succeeded—but the billboard was removed after the first day amid a fluster of outrage from Global Warming Alarmists. A flow of harsh emails is being sent to everyone ever associated with Heartland.
I am listed as a Heartland Expert and spoken on the natural 1,500-year climate cycle at two of their international global-warming skeptics' conferences, It's my contention, and that of many well-qualified scientists, that the natural solar-driven cycle explains most of the earth's recent warming. My book, with co-author Fred Singer, is Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years.
I got the following this week from a blog called BigCityLib:
"Dear Mr. Avery, I am wondering if you are aware 1) that you are listed as a "Heartland Institute Expert;" and 2) that Heartland recently ran a billboard campaign comparing AGW believers to mass murders (in particular to the Unabomber)?
"A number of scientists have asked that they be removed from the HI list of experts because of this billboard campaign, and a number of sponsors have withdrawn their funding. I wonder if you will continue to be associated with them (Heartland)? And may I publish any response here: http>//bigcitylib.blolgspot.ca/? M. J. Murphy, BCL"
"Dear BigCityLib: I am a senior fellow of the Hudson Institute, and proud of my association with Heartland. I continue to agree with Heartland that man-made warming is a tiny element of the planet's warming since the Maunder Minimum ended about 1715. The real warming factor is the 1,500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle, whose centuries-long "little ice ages" collapsed virtually all human cultures after they enjoyed short periods of success during the global warming phases of the cycle. That's why world cultures have lasted an average of about 500 years each. The Little Ice Age officially ended about 1850.
"The earth's hundreds of previous global warmings have been the good times, for humans and other life forms, and this will continue to be true. The appropriate policy today is to produce still more fertilizer and invest in research to get still-higher crop yields to feed a peak population of 8.1 billion people in 2050. Without displacing more of the planet's wildlife. (By 2300, the UN's Low Variant Projection says human numbers will have declined to 2.3 billion, due to the low birth rates that accord with low death rates. Your frantic fear of "overpopulation" will have faded into the mists.)
"Do not destroy our vital energy systems: Relying on solar and wind would achieve the Greenpeace goal of fewer people, through ghastly hardships. Would that qualify as mass murder? Nor would this 'save the planet.' Hungry people eat the wildlife before they starve.
I think the billboard was an effective way to carry this message beyond the current "skeptic" ranks. I continue to be amazed at the "religious" belief of BigCityLiberals in a theory that has been betrayed by 1) the existence of the D-O cycle which has been known now for 28 years it won for Dansgaard and Oeschger the "environmental Nobel," the Tyler Prize; 2) the non-warming of the past 15 years, which defies the Greenhouse Theory; 3) the falsification of the global climate models' predictions; and 4) the historical pattern of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which tells us that the current global cooling is likely to last decades more and will thus destroy the man-made warming campaign.
"May I publish your decision to renounce the man-made warming campaign and thus spare the public some of the anguish that has been inflicted by this well-meant but now obviously misguided effort? Dennis Avery"
Dennis T. Avery, a senior fellow for the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C., is an environmental economist. He was formerly a senior analyst for the Department of State. He is co-author, with S. Fred Singer, of Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1500 Years. Readers may write to him at PO Box 202 Churchville, VA 2442; email to email@example.com. Visit our website at www. cgfi.org