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RE: Good news from the Battleground Poll by Bruce Walker (October 16, 2006)
Thank you for this article. Amidst all the hyperventilation about this year's election, as Dr. Henry Lee said during the OJ trial, "Something wrong." Some things weren't adding up to me, to wit:
1) Only two short years ago, President Bush won with about 52% percent of the vote, while Kerry won with about 48%. I would wager that many, many people voted for Kerry because they hated Bush, but I seriously doubt many people voted for Bush because they hated Kerry. Which suggest to me that of the two, the more conservative side had more solid support than the liberal side. If people really wanted the liberal candidate, they had one. But they didn't take it - why?
2) While certainly downplayed in the media, the economy is pretty dang good. Someone has to be working, if about 95% of Americans are. Someone has to be propelling the stock market to new heights (and yes, Mr. Democratic Talking Head - Wall Street isn't Main Street - Main Street supports Wall Street, considering how many average Americans are in the market.) someone has to be pushing consumer confidence up. Someone has to happy their taxes are lower. So I am to believe, that with a good economy, voters are suddenly going to vote to turn it off?
3) I've noticed about politics that everyone loves to trash "politicians" - but in the end, it tends to be that they don't mind their own guy so much - it's the other guy that they want gone. And if political scandal was that effective, why didn't the Duke Cunningham seat go to a Democrat? Why did Ray Nagin get reelected?
4) So far, NO Democrat has explained to me how my being unhappy or disappointed in some things that Bush et al have done is going to suddenly make me be for things like national health care, higher taxes, a tepid response to terrorism. and granting illegal aliens voting status. Do they really believe that because Mark Foley was a jerk, I'm suddenly going to embrace Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, and an end to my tax cuts?
5) I am very leery of most polls. Polls are nothing more than emotionally based points in time. I don't trust who conducts the poll, I don't trust how the sample is gather and of whom it consists, and I don't trust how questions are written. I don't trust that people who answer polls are telling the truth. I don't trust the conclusion the polls arrive at, for example: A common poll question is, "Do you think the country is headed in the right direction?" Well, I'd have to answer no - however, Democrats take that to mean that I want it going in their direction, which I do not.
6) Am I to believe there are no Democrats whose seats are in danger? That only the contested races are those where the GOP is being challenged? That while some GOP seats may be lost, none will be offset by any GOP wins?
My larger point is, of course, that we know the media is agenda driven and prone to bias. We know they are trying to create an impression to discourage certain voters from voting (namely, conservative GOP voters who are traditionally better at voting than the "Vote or Die" crowd). And we have the so-called "new media" with millions of listeners, to encourage us. (If America really wanted Air America's message, it would seem that their filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection is an odd public endorsement.)
The fat lady may be warming up. I just wouldn't be so sure yet she's going to be warbling for our side.
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