Sauce for the goose: political convention wisdom

By Jackson Murphy
web posted January 19, 2004

On the eve of the Iowa Caucuses the one interesting and truly
unpredictable thing to watch is which of the political conventional
wisdoms, if any, will come true. Tune in any cable news channel
and there will be pundits and politicos of all shapes and sizes
talking about the "ground game", that there is only "three tickets
out of Iowa", and of course the "Big Mo."

As soon as you realize that the "Big Mo" isn't Rep. Richard
Gephardt's campaign nickname but secret code for the illusive
political force known as momentum you're on the right track.
And the sooner you realize that these sideline commentators are
more interested in the drama of the race the better.

"It is true the press wants a race," writes Peggy Noonan in The
Wall Street Journal. "They don't want to spend the next three
months filing ‘Dean Wins Again' and ‘Why Kerry Failed to
Ignite.' But it's more than that. Reading between the lines and
listening between the lines, it's hard to avoid the thought that
reporters don't really like Mr. Dean. The last time a viable
Democrat rose, in 1992, the columnists for the newsmagazines
and profile writers for the newspapers loved Bill Clinton with a
throbbing love. None of those columns are being written now.
They don't love Mr. Dean."

The name of the game is the idea of the big game itself rather
than who wins or loses. Besides conventional wisdoms wouldn't
very fun unless they were broken every once and awhile. So
maybe the press doesn't need to love its favorite candidate
either.

In Iowa the polls everyone followed so closely for months are
now being tossed aside faster than a Britney Spears wedding.
Reporters and politicians alike spent months following the polls in
Iowa, now that they show a race tightening. When asked what
the three most important things are in the race at this point one
CNN reporter repeated at least twice, "organization,
organization, organization."

While it's true, Iowa's caucuses are different, and organization
matters. "A campaign organization can," writes Adam
Nagourney of The New York Times. "By recruiting supporters
and getting them to the meetings on Monday, overcome any
qualms about a candidate — and that clearly was how Dr.
Dean's aides were hoping to carry him out of this valley."
Fox News Sunday's Chris Wallace asked what organization
meant to the Dean camp and campaign manager Joe Trippi
confidently said, "Oh, three, four points."

Add to this "organizationalization" of the campaign, the always-
debatable notions of the "ground game" and "hard count" and
you'll think this is sports strategy. In Iowa a campaign can get
fairly good at predicting whom they can depend on to show up
and vote. With the poll numbers going into the Caucuses
showing Kerry in the lead, now Dean just has to win by any
margin to walk away with a big victory. It's a win-win.

Having said all this about the surging campaigns of the two
Johns, Sen. John Kerry and Sen. John Edwards, it is undeniable
that Gov. Dean and Rep. Gephardt have the strongest
organizations in the state. This is the conflict between the "Big
Mo" and organization. The Associated Press' Ron Fournier
reports that the conventional wisdom on organization might be
trumped by the conventional wisdom of momentum. "Though
odds are still stacked against them, Kerry and Edwards could
use momentum to overcome a lack of political muscle."

Gauging momentum is more like reading the tealeaves than a
hard science. "Momentum, the holy grail of political campaigns,"
writes Carl Hulse in The New York Times. "is evidently
spreading through the Democratic presidential candidates like the
flu."

This leads us into another. Gephardt has to win Iowa or there
will be a political sized fork stuck in him on Monday night
declaring him done. MSNBC's Howard Fineman writes, "The
paradox for you is that everything depends on Iowa — but even
if you win it you can't expect to get much of a bounce. You are
nowhere in New Hampshire, and never will be." Now that's
conventional wisdom.

But let's not forget that only three people will get a "ticket" out of
Iowa to carry on in the campaign. Which is a good thing since
Gen. Wesley Clark and Sen. Joe Lieberman aren't even
contesting it-so that should leave us with five candidates come
Tuesday right. In fact, some talking heads are already hedging
their bets on the wisdom that Iowa will again naturally winnow
the field by acting as the political grim reaper.

"Depending on the order of finish, all of the major candidates
who competed here," writes Ronald Brownstein in The Los
Angeles Times. "Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, Rep.
Dick Gephardt of Missouri and Sens. John F. Kerry of
Massachusetts and John Edwards of North Carolina — could
wake up Tuesday with enough strength and credibility to sustain
their campaigns."
 
And if we wake up on Tuesday and all four candidates are still
standing, be comforted that there will be more conventional
wisdom to explain Iowa's results and what happens next. That's
the great thing about conventional wisdom. There is always lots
of it to go around and if it's good enough for them it'll be good
enough for us.

Jackson Murphy is a commentator from Vancouver, Canada.
He is a senior writer at Enter Stage Right and the editor of
"Dispatches" a website that serves up political commentary 24-7.

Enter Stage Right -- http://www.enterstageright.com