Three factors which can swing the election to Bush
By Bruce Walker
web posted May 31, 2004
Will President George W. Bush lose? All the public opinion polls, including now the state by state polls, at least as Zogby measures them, say "yes." The economy is improving, but no one cares. The defeat of Saddam Hussein remains and unqualified good, but no one cares. The terrorists are on the run, but no one cares.
Beneath the shovels of muck which Leftists have toss on public attention, there is much hidden good. There are also events which could dramatically change support for President Bush over the next few months. I wrote recently about the general subject of Hope. Let me know write more specifically about the reason to be hopeful in this election.
The recent election in India, with the installation of the first Sikh prime minister in history, is good news. The willingness of the Indian people to entrust Sonia Gandhi, who was not a native Indian and who was not a practicing Hindu, was also good news. Both show that India was the path of peace and prosperity.
Because Sikhism is something of a synthesis of Islam and Hinduism, the prospects for real peace with Pakistan, also a nuclear power, should substantially subside. That should strengthen the hand of Pervez Musharraf against hardliners in Pakistan. It should also calm the Asian economy and help global economic growth.
The more recent election of Horst Koehler as President of Germany should help too. Although the President of Germany has less power than the Chancellor of Germany, who remains a socialist and an anti-American, Koehler is an economist and a member of the traditionally conservative and mildly pro-American Christian Democrats.
Schroeder and his crypto-Marxist SDP have been losing elections everywhere in Germany to the much friendlier Christian Democrats. His policies will increasingly be compelled toward moderation in foreign policy and growth in the economy.
The two new men in these great democracies are both economists and both will make economic growth a priority. These two very recent elections will almost certainly reassure investors and comfort business ready to begin genuine expansion. Both these nations will almost certainly also become, at a practical level, more interested in genuine peace in the Middle East and in Iraq, out of self interest.
Polls are also showing a bedrock of support for President Bush which should hearten all his supporters. Consider the latest "fair" and "objective" Gallup Poll, whose headline reads "War Support Unchanged." Those novices to Leftist spin will not know what this actually means, but the rest of us do. It means: "War Support Grows" which shows up at the end of the article.
Those Americans who believe it was worth going to war in Iraq grew from the last poll from forty-four percent to forty-five percent while those who believe it was not worth going to war in Iraq dropped from fifty-four percent to fifty-two percent, a swing of three points towards the President and hence "Unchanged."
There is a huge body of Americans, roughly half the population, who have made up their minds that they will support President Bush no matter what. No problem, no mud slinging, no event will alter them. Support for Kerry, by contrast, is lukewarm. He does modestly well now simply because nearly all swing voters are upset with the President. That could change quickly.
Osama bin Ladin or one of his top henchmen could be captured, and that would immediately give the President a boost. Our intelligence services could overcome and publicly announce a foiled plot to do serious damage in one of our cities. Not would that boost support nationwide, but a foiled plot to murder thousands in Cleveland could swing Ohio, in Miami could swing Florida, in Philadelphia could swing Pennsylvania and so on.
Morbidity could also change the race. President Reagan will die someday, and only God, Nancy and his doctors have much of an idea when that might be. When he dies, the nation will realize its loss. Almost everything about the Gipper was good, noble and successful. It would be logical for President Bush to give the eulogy and most Americans would watch.
Ronald Reagan was the most popular political figure in the history of California. His funeral and California seeing President Bush at his very best could cause many Californians to sit back and reflect on what principled and compassionate conservatives could do. Reagan was also beloved in the Pacific and Rocky Mountain regions. His death could affect the vote in Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and several other states.
Gerald Ford will turn ninety-one on July 14. He is almost universally perceived as a decent man and a president who did the best he could for America in difficult times. His death and the funeral following that would also stop Democrat hate speech and allow the President to address the nation from a sympathetic forum. President Ford was very popular in Michigan, and that state could easily swing to President Bush in the aftermath of a Ford funeral.
Democrat nastiness makes it likely that the natural death of either of these decent men and former presidents could help President Bush much more. Consider, for example, how the Left mocked the intellect of Reagan or the physical dexterity of Ford. Actually, Reagan was very smart and Ford of a college football star, but the itch to be vicious often causes Leftists to scratch even when it hurts more than it helps.
What is some Democrat blurts out something bad about a recently dead Reagan or Ford? Republicans could demand that Kerry repudiate it, and if Kerry hesitates, he is lost; if he speaks glowingly of the dead Republican, he weakens his own arguments; if he endorses libel of the dead, he risks a massive exodus of moderates.
Aside from elections and deaths, another factor in the campaign has not yet been fully grasped by some pundits. President Bush will have some of the most respected surrogates in American history backing him: Zell Miller, Ed Koch, Colin Powell, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
None of these men can be dismissed as partisans - Miller and Koch are Democrats. None of these men can be dismissed as right-wing ideologues - all are either moderates or moderately liberal. None of these can be dismissed as "Bush men" - McCain has opposed Bush often; Koch makes no bones about his difference in domestic policy, and so on.
Team Bush will be much, much stronger than Team Kerry. Miller, Koch and Powell can all help swing Florida. Schwarzenegger, Powell, Giuliani and McCain can all help swing California. Koch, Powell, McCain and Giuliani can all help swing Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.
It would be easy to get discouraged now. It would also be the height of foolishness. President Bush knows what he is doing and he is doing it now. The result, in November, will be the re-election of the President. Bank on it. 
Bruce Walker is a senior writer with Enter Stage Right. He is also a frequent contributor to The Pragmatist and The Common Conservative.
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