What the loss of Brazil to "the Reds" would mean for the United
States

By David T. Pyne
web posted September 9, 2002

Were a Communist coalition under front-running presidential
candidate Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva allied with Cuban President
Fidel Castro and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to take
power in Brazil following this October's presidential election, it
would undoubtedly be the greatest Communist coup since Mao
and his Red Army proclaimed the People's Republic of China in
Beijing over fifty years ago. In one fell swoop, 175 million more
Latin Americans would fall under Marxist domination and
together with Communist Cuba and Communist led Venezuela
would automatically be the dominant power bloc in Latin
America with a sizable majority of the population and territory
there.

Constantine Mendes, a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute
and former member of the National Security Council who
recently preceded me in being interviewed on Howard Phillips'
excellent and informative Conservative Roundtable public access
program, has written a series of similar, but highly important
articles regarding the developing political situation in Brazil. His
articles serve to confirm what I wrote in an editorial on the
Communist threat back in June. In addition to da Silva's strong
ties to rogue states such as Cuba, Iraq, and Libya, Mendes
states that da Silva has publicly praised his friend, Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez as "an example to emulate" if he
succeeds in getting elected President in October. He states that
this would mean that we could expect "the use of pseudo-
electoral process and referenda to consolidate his rule as
dictator." Da Silva would probably embark upon a slow path of
transforming Brazil into an authoritarian, though not doctrinaire
Marxist state. He would likely subvert political freedoms in Brazil
and change the constitution and/or commit electoral fraud to
ensure his indefinite continuance in power as has been done by
Chavez in Venezuela. His political opponents should expect no
mercy.

Mendes has attempted to highlight the dangers posed by a da
Silva victory in the Brazilian presidential elections and prod the
Bush Administration to pursue whatever options are available to
avert what would undoubtedly amount to the greatest regional
crisis for the US since the Soviets parked nuclear-tipped medium
range ballistic missiles in Cuba in 1962. He warns of the
formation of "a new axis of evil" if da Silva wins the election.
Mendes writes that da Silva has spoken of his desire to restart
Brazil's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs if re-
elected. He reveals that Brazil's military actually "successfully
designed two atomic bombs and was reportedly on the verge of
testing one nuclear device" when its democratic participant
discovered the rogue program and shut it down in 1994. Da
Silva has essentially declared his intention to have Brazil join the
Sino-Russian axis of nations against the United States if he
becomes President. He has also expressed interest in providing
Communist China with naval bases along Brazil's long Atlantic
coastline.

Brazil is the second largest and second most powerful country in
the Western Hemisphere, comprising over half the population
and territory of South America. As it borders on ten other
countries in Latin America, Brazil would be well-positioned to
serve as regional hegemon of the South American continent were
it to find the political will to do so. This would be particularly true
were it to test a nuclear weapon and become a nuclear power.
Brazil also boasts the world's eighth largest economy.

Da Silva has established extensive ties to international terrorism.
He has been very critical of the US "War on Terror" and has
professed admiration for such widely respected international
statesmen as Saddam Hussein and Mohomar Quadafi. His
election as President would greatly increase the prospect of a
successful takeover of Columbia by the Communist FARC
guerillas, which he fully supports. Mendes states that a Marxist
regime in Brazil would also be well-positioned to help cause
Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru to fall to would-be Marxist dictators
and exploit the deepening economic crisis in Argentina, which I
recently visited in June, and Paraguay. All told, a da Silva victory
could well result in "as many as 300 million people" falling "under
the control of anti-American dictatorships."

In 1990, da Silva co-founded the Forum of Sao Paulo with
Cuban President Fidel Castro and former Nicaraguan Marxist
President Daniel Ortega. The Forum is a kind of annual
"Communist Party Congress" for Communists, anti-American
terrorists and Marxist revolutionaries to meet together and
strategize on how to best effect their plans for Communizing
much if not most of Latin America. Venezuelan President and
self-proclaimed Communist, Hugo Chavez has become a major
power player in this organization since coming to power in 1998.
Chavez is probably supporting the da Silva campaign to the tune
of millions of dollars while Castro may also be committing
hundreds of his intelligence operatives to help da Silva win the
election.

Under da Silva's leadership, Brazil would become the new
Marxist powerhouse of Latin America and the base of
operations for a new Latin American "axis of evil" from which
much of the rest of Latin America, beginning with Panama could
fall like a series of dominoes to well-supported Marxist politicos
and revolutionaries. America's surviving allies in Latin America
would be completely isolated. Losing Brazil to a Communist-
aligned regime would be a loss that the US could not recover
from anytime soon. It would force the US to retool its entire
foreign policy and change its main focus from the Eurasian
subcontinent to Latin America with a concomitant redeployment
of forces to the South American theater of operations
(SOCOM). It would also require the reoccupation by US
military forces of the Panama Canal and the eviction of its current
Communist Chinese tenets for the US to have any hope of
restoring a measure of continental, let alone hemispheric security.

During a pre-brief for my last trip to Brazil's capitol last March
as part of an official US government delegation, I queried the
intelligence community briefer on whether he believed that an
electoral victory by da Silva would adversely effect Brazil's
foreign policy towards the US. He told me that he did not
believe that it would, despite a mountain of evidence to the
contrary. Since then, I have determined that neither the Bush
Administration nor the US intelligence community is focusing
much attention on the threat of a Marxist takeover of Brazil and
determining what that outcome would mean for US foreign
policy initiatives in Brazil. Accordingly a victory by da Silva in
this fall's election will be a wake-up call for which they will be
woefully unprepared. The Bush Administration would be well-
advised to correct course and take immediate action designed to
prevent the unthinkable loss of Brazil to a Communist-aligned
coalition government.

David T. Pyne, Esq. works as an International Programs
Manager with the Department of the Army responsible for
cooperation with Latin America. He is a former Army Reserve
Officer. He spent two years in Brazil from 1988-1990 serving as
a missionary for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints.
Mr. Pyne recently served as a member of an official Department
of Defense-led trip to meet with officials of Brazil's newly
established Ministry of Defense. Mr. Pyne holds an MA in
National Security Studies from Georgetown University and is a
member of the Center for Emerging National Security Affairs
based in Washington, D.C. He has been cited in the New
American magazine and was recently interviewed on Howard
Phillips' Conservative Roundtable TV program in regards to
issues related to the coming Brazilian election. (c) 2002 David T.
Pyne

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