The best Senate Minority Leader

By Bruce Walker
web posted November 8, 2004

The defeat of Tom Daschle and John Kerry should have sent a
wake up call to the entire Democratic Party. Democrats now
have fewer Senate seats than at any time since before Franklin
Roosevelt was president.

Moreover, the combined defeat of their Minority Leader and the
loss of four Senate seats -- which could have been much worse,
if Senator Ben "Nighthorse" Campbell in Colorado had run for
reelection or Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn had run against
Senator Patty Murray or Governor Mike Huckabee against
Senator Blanche Lincoln -- should make Democrats understand
just how unpopular the national party is in Flyover Country.

The Senate prospects for Democrats in 2006 do not look good.
There is not a single Republican senator in the class of 2006 that
looks even remotely vulnerable. Even Republican senators from
the three states that Kerry won -- Olympia Snowe of Maine,
Lincoln Chaffee of Rhode Island, and Rick Santorum of
Pennsylvania -- are prohibitive favorites for reelection.

Democrats in 2000 won every close race, and so their 2006
class is filled with potentially vulnerable senators who won with
paper thin pluralities in states that President Bush carried, or
almost carried, in 2004 – Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Bill Nelson
of Florida, Mark Dayton of Minnesota, and Debbie Strabenow
of Michigan -- or senators from strongly Republican states like
Kent Conrad of North Dakota.
 
That class is also full of very old Democrats like Ted Kennedy of
Massachusetts, Paul Sarbanes of Maryland and Dianne Feinstein
of California who come from states with very popular
Republican governors. It includes an eighty-four years old
Robert Byrd who comes from a state that President Bush carried
easily and Herbert Kohl, who will be seventy-one in 2006 and
who comes from Wisconsin, a state with a popular former
Republican governor and a Republican state legislature and a
state that was evenly split in the presidential election.

The 2006 class also includes Jim Jeffords, who Republicans will
make a point of trying to defeat in the midterm elections, perhaps
with popular two-term governor Jim Douglas, who just won a
resounding second term and who would have in Washington
much more clout, even as a "moderate" Republican, than
Jeffords will have as a loathed turncoat.

John Corzine of New Jersey and Tom Carper of Delaware
appear the only two Democrat seats which are genuinely safe in
2006, and that could change quickly if Republicans capture New
Jersey state government (including the gubernatorial election
which will soon be near) or if Rep. Michael Castle, the
Republican Congressman from Delaware, challenges Carper on
the perfectly reasonable ground that he would have much more
influence in Washington than Carper ever will.

This means that Democrats, who currently have only forty-four
senators to fifty-five Republicans, could potentially lose a dozen
seats in the mid-term election in two years. More realistically,
Democrats face some losses in the midterm elections with three
probably a low ball figure and seven probably a high ball figure.

Much will depend upon how seriously President Bush is about
defeating Senate Democrats. As Daschle has learned now in two
successive elections, trying to play President Bush the fool is
very foolish indeed. Democrats have a golden opportunity to
recover lost ground by selecting a Minority Leader who can
work with Senator Bill Frist and President Bush. The obvious
choice is Senator Joseph Lieberman.

No one can seriously doubt that Lieberman is a liberal
Democrat. He has also been a loyal Democrat and was, of
course, the running mate of Al Gore. Lieberman comes from a
traditionally liberal and Democrat state. In ideological and
partisan terms, Joe Lieberman should have to apologize to no
one in the Democrat Party. What he possesses, however, could
be invaluable to his party and to America.

First, he is civil. He does not engage in vicious ad hominem
attacks. It is impossible not to respect that quality. When I see
Lieberman on television, his calm and polite demeanor reminds
me of Governor Richardson of New Mexico, who is doubtless
all wrong on policies and politics, but who does not engage in
puerile name calling and sneering condescension.

Second, Senator Lieberman seems to really care some about
those values -- honesty, respect for the sincerely held beliefs of
others, seriousness and modesty -- which make democracy
work. This does not mean that he will compromise his principles
on issues but rather that he will have the tools to agree when his
principles are in accord with what the opposition wants.

Third, Joe Lieberman seems to genuinely want peace in the
Middle East. That means his criticisms of administration policy
will be constructive criticism, not transitory point-scoring. There
is not a single thing wrong, in a healthy democracy, with loyal
opposition in time of war. That requires a common strategic goal
with disagreements on tactics and operations.

Democrats, if they are smart, will quickly coalesce around
Senator Lieberman as a responsible and serious floor leader. If
they do, then filibusters will be used carefully and obstruction of
Republican policies on procedural grounds seasoned with
reasonableness and compromise. If, however, Senate
Democrats choose a firebrand or a fake, then expect two years
from now for a much worse November than 2002 or 2004: a
filibuster proof Senate which can, will and should run roughshod
over an angry minority.

Bruce Walker is a senior writer with Enter Stage Right. He is
also a frequent contributor to The Pragmatist and The Common
Conservative.

Enter Stage Right -- http://www.enterstageright.com