Will Iran recover from the heavy blows dealt by Israel?
By Yoni Ben Menachem
web posted July 7, 2025
Senior security officials state that Israel is taking seriously the possibility that Iran will attempt to recover from the heavy blows it suffered during the 12-day war and rebuild its nuclear and military programs, particularly in the fields of ballistic missile development and production. Therefore, Israel is already preparing for this scenario and for the possibility of another round of fighting with Iran. The United States is also preparing for this possibility.
According to diplomatic sources, this issue will be discussed in a meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House on July 7, 2025. President Trump stated on June 28, 2025, that he would consider striking Iran again if it resumes uranium enrichment.
On June 27, Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that he had instructed the IDF to prepare an "enforcement plan" against Iran. This plan includes maintaining air superiority, preventing progress in Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and responding to Iranian activity supporting terrorism against Israel. He emphasized that Israel will act to ensure it controls the skies in every relevant theater – over Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and especially the Iranian arena – so that it can achieve the goals of the plan.
Despite the IDF's tremendous achievements in the war against Iran, there are several critical points to consider:
- While Israel eliminated 17 leading nuclear scientists in Iran, an estimated 80 others remain unharmed. These individuals still constitute a significant source of knowledge that could aid Iran in rebuilding the nuclear capabilities that were damaged by Israel.
- Despite the heavy damage to Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, Israeli security sources estimate that Iran still possesses approximately 1,000 ballistic missiles and around 200 launchers. Its proxies in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon also retain the capability to attack Israel using missiles and drones.
- Iran disputes President Trump's claims, asserting that it successfully removed 400 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium three days before the strike and also relocated thousands of advanced sixth-generation centrifuges – particularly from the fortified, underground Fordow nuclear facility.
Iran claims that prior to the war, it even notified the IAEA of the establishment of a new uranium enrichment facility, without revealing its location. In other words, Iran admits that its nuclear sites suffered serious damage but insists that its nuclear program remains intact and ongoing.
Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, declared on June 24 that restoration of nuclear facilities is proceeding according to plan. Security officials warn that in the aftermath of Israeli-American strikes, Iran's nuclear activity may now be shifted to secret facilities.
It is even possible that Iran will covertly raise its enrichment level to 93% – sufficient for the production of about ten nuclear bombs – and suspend Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's fatwa prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons, thereby edging closer to the model followed by India, Pakistan, and North Korea, none of which joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Iran maintains that it does not require outside assistance to rebuild its nuclear program and that it possesses the knowledge, technology, and manpower, including tens of thousands of scientists, engineers, and technicians. The assassination of 17 of its nuclear scientists, Iran claims, does not hinder its ability to continue the project.
On June 29, Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated in an interview with CBS News that although the recent strikes caused heavy damage to Iran's nuclear infrastructure, the country could resume uranium enrichment within a few months, since "knowledge cannot be erased."
In summary, Israel and the United States delivered a heavy blow to Iran's nuclear program. The immediate threat has been removed, but there is no conclusive evidence that they succeeded in fully dismantling Iran's nuclear project and ballistic missile program.
It is possible that Israel has sown the seeds of a popular uprising against Khamenei, but it is too early to tell. Iran claims that its regime is currently stable and that it emerged from this war stronger, both internally and in the regional arena.
Israeli security officials emphasize that the critical task now is to closely monitor Iran's military recovery efforts and to coordinate with the U.S. administration the necessary military steps to prevent the rebuilding of Iran's military and nuclear capabilities.
The game of "cat and mouse" begins now.
At the same time, a senior security source estimates that the only effective way to stop Iran from rebuilding its damaged nuclear facilities may ultimately consist of two stages: In the short term, additional airstrikes by Israel and the United States on Iran's nuclear sites, and in the longer term, the overthrow of the Iranian regime – including the elimination of Khamenei, his son Mojtaba, and the ruling Shiite religious elite currently in power. 
Yoni Ben Menachem, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center. He served as Director General and Chief Editor of the Israel Broadcasting Authority.
